As we enter the new year, with all its hopes and dreams, it seems everyone is releasing annual reports of some sort. Sadly for Joe Biden, most do not spell out good things for him.
Take J.P. Morgan’s top strategist, for example.
As chairman of market and investment strategy for the respected and well-known financial service company, it’s Michael Cembalest’s job to see what is going on in the world, our nation, and these modern days and apply that to how the economy will ebb and flow in the near future.
This then allows him to see into the future a bit, making sound predictions about what is most likely to come, both on a financial front and nationally. All of this is contained in a rather lengthy report titled Eye on the Market: Outlook 2024.
Contained in this year’s report are ten “surprises” for 2024.
Now, surprise might not be exactly the best word. But it does hint at the fact that not everyone will see these things coming.
What kinds of things?
Well, for starters, Cembalest sees Joe Biden dropping out of the presidential reelection race. More specifically, the strategist sees this happening for “health reasons” and “sometime between Super Tuesday and the November election.”
Again, this isn’t exactly a surprise. Or at least it shouldn’t be to most of us.
If you’ve paid attention to either Biden’s reelection campaign or his presidency’s many problems, you know that his “health” has always been a bit of a concern. At 81, it’s only expected, I guess, despite his administration’s insistence that the octogenarian is as healthy as a horse.
And as of late, those health concerns, especially his mental health, have only grown as he continues to muddle through press conferences, forget where he’s at, and seem to lose his train of thought. And then, of course, there are the many “falls” he’s taken as of late. Hell, they’ve even had to re-engineer the steps to Air Force One in an attempt to make them more elderly-friendly.
And that only adds to his unpopularity on a string of other matters. You name it, and there is a whole demographic out there who doesn’t like how Biden’s handled it, from the failing economy and the ongoing border crisis to foreign policy and the COVID-19 pandemic.
All of this has given him rather abysmal poll numbers. According to the most recent ones, in fact, he’s doing even worse than the “worst president ever,” Donald Trump.
Needless to say, he’s no longer exactly the darling of the Democratic Party he once was.
And it’s probably reason numero uno why Cembalest doesn’t see Biden sticking his reelection campaign out.
His prediction’s timing also seems to make sense between Super Tuesday and the general election.
Super Tuesday, a day when 16 states hold their primaries, takes place on March 5 this year. Naturally, the general election won’t occur until November 5, a full eight months later.
While it’s often difficult to see the outcome of any election early, say after only a few state primaries, the results usually become quite a bit clearer on Super Tuesday. For Biden, this could mean that the writing is on the wall, with more than a few states either choosing someone else for the DNC nominee or clearly showing a GOP preference.
And as more primaries continue, the odds of a Biden success story will likely only diminish. Hence, the predicted dropout.
As Cembalest correctly says, this will then force the DNC to choose a “replacement candidate” to whom the nomination will pass. As of right now, there is no single Dem candidate, including the Vice President, who can foreseeably either win or do the job any better than Biden.
Again, none of this should be a great surprise to us. But it does quite effectively spell out bad news for Biden. When a non-political entity and strategist predicts such based on the market and everything else going on, let’s just say it’s not good.
