As you know all too well at this point, incumbent presidential candidate Joe Biden is doing pretty miserable in just about every poll out there, especially compared with former President Donald Trump. And according to a recent one, even his would-be replacements can’t stand against Trump.
You’ve likely heard by now that Biden is doing so badly at his job that even some of his most ardent supporters are now starting to question his abilities. Particularly, the concern is that he is no longer fit to do his job and, even if he could, would not muster enough support in a general election to retain his seat of power and the Democrats’ thin hold on it.
Naturally, the idea is to replace Biden at some point, most presumably right before the Convention. This would mean that Biden could win his party’s nomination during the primaries and then essentially hand it to someone who would supposedly do better at taking on Trump (the expected GOP nominee at this point) in the general election.
To be sure, it’s a plausible plan. One that might even work.
Well, that is if recent polling didn’t suggest that even Biden’s top replacements couldn’t stand a chance against Trump.
According to a new poll from the UK’s Stack Data Strategy, Trump not only beats out Biden for a win, but when stacked against anyone else the Dems put up to replace him, he wins by even more.
First reported by Politico, the poll uses “Multi-level Regression and Poststratification (MRP)” to get its results. Basically, this means that it uses large samples of national polling data to estimate public opinion.
As Politico noted, Biden would still win the national popular vote if the vote was taken right now, beating Trump 49 percent to 48 percent. However, Trump would take the Electoral College with a 292 to 246 win.
Primarily, this result is because four of the major battleground states that Biden won in 2020 would flip back to Trump in 2024.
As Stack Data Strategy said in a news release, “The poll shows Trump on course to win back four key swing states that Biden won in 2020: Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.”
It was noted that in 2020, these four states had the smallest margins. In fact, Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin all had Biden winning by less than one percent.
And in 2024, things will likely remain similarly tight. However, Stack says it will go in the other direction.
They see Trump winning Georgia by 3.3 percent, Pennsylvania by 2.3 percent, Arizona by 1.4 percent, and Wisconsin by only 0.9 percent.
Now, it’s important to point out here that Stack isn’t exactly your typical polling service.
For starters, this is more of an internet poll, which usually is less accurate. Then, there is the fact that they don’t give a margin of error. Instead, they use “strict quotas regarding education and ethnicity” as well as past voting behavior, region, age, and gender.
Essentially, what this means is that it might be hard to decipher just how accurate this poll is. Then again, with a little less than a whole year before the actual election, much could change anyway.
Nevertheless, it’s good news for conservatives everywhere, or at least Trump fans.
And we get even better news when looking at how Trump does when stacked against the two most likely replacements for Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris and California Governor Gavin Newsom.
As the poll says, “Despite recent calls for change, our polling also shows that neither party would benefit from a change in candidate, President Trump would beat both Biden’s possible replacements by an even greater margin.”
Now, that even greater margin was never specified.
However, it was in the case where Florida’s Governor Ron DeSantis took the GOP nomination. In this case, Biden would beat DeSantis 359 to 179 electoral college votes.
Case and point: Trump is the guy to beat, no matter who goes up against him, and it’s not looking good for the Democrats.
